Conference «Singapore Perspectives 2019 «Singapore. World» - Opening Remarks

Opening Remarks with Mr Janadas Devan. Director of the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) held its annual flagship Singapore Perspectives (SP) conference on Monday, 28 January 2019. The theme of SP2019 is «Singapore.World». It sought to consider recent geopolitical developments, their trajectory for the coming years, and implications for Singapore and our region. IPS featured prominent speakers like Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan; former Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo; former Indonesian Foreign Minister Dr Marty Natalegawa; Managing Director of the Economic Development Board of Singapore Chng Kai Fong, Professor Wang Gungwu, and former Singapore Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs Bilahari Kausikan. The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) © 2019

Singapore Perspectives 2019 «Singapore. World» - Panel I: Singapore and the World

The post-Cold War world order is undergoing significant disruptions and headed towards prolonged uncertainty. This is primarily driven by the dynamics of strategic competition and engagement between the United States, the predominant power, and China, the rising power. Both powers are contending with deep issues of national identity and purpose. The US and Chinese leaderships have raised fundamental questions about the current world order, and their respective roles, rights, and obligations vis-à-vis the international system. Arguably, the world order and open trading system have been fraying at the seams for some time. Regimes that flout international norms have not been brought to account. Trade has lifted millions out of poverty, but also caused severe economic dislocation for workers. Questions are being asked about the benefits and costs of globalisation across the world. Populist nationalism, with the attendant attractions of protectionism and rejection of multilateralism and international law and treaties, could increasingly be brought to bear on the foreign policy of key states. To complicate but also ameliorate this complex state of affairs, the US and China, together with the rest of the world, are much more integrated today than during the Cold War, with dense and entangled networks of economic production and exchange, and information and people flows. This is powered by technological advances that are accelerating beyond the understanding of most individuals or organisations. The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) © 2019

Singapore Perspectives 2019 «Singapore. World» - Panel II: Singapore and International Economics

Questions are being asked about the benefits and costs of globalisation across the world. Populist nationalism, with the attendant attractions of protectionism and rejection of multilateralism and international law and treaties, could increasingly be brought to bear on the foreign policy of key states. To complicate but also ameliorate this complex state of affairs, the US and China, together with the rest of the world, are much more integrated today than during the Cold War, with dense and entangled networks of economic production and exchange, and information and people flows. This is powered by technological advances that are accelerating beyond the understanding of most individuals or organisations. There remain important areas of shared concerns — for instance, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism, international financial stability, and climate change. These issues should promote cooperation but may also become sources of friction. What are the implications for small states like Singapore and countries in Southeast Asia? If effective statecraft is to mobilise all national resources necessary to preserve a nation’s sovereignty, security and prosperity, how should countries respond to these geopolitical, economic, and technological challenges? Challenges to state sovereignty now extend beyond the military and political, to indirect How well has Singapore dealt with the US and China, and how must it change and adapt its posture to meet current and future challenges? What is the long-term perspective it should take? Is Singapore society organised and resilient enough to meet these challenges resolutely? What do Singaporeans need to understand? PANEL II Singapore and International Economics The United States still dominates global economy, although its share of world GDP had fallen to 24.32 per cent, while China’s had risen to 14.84 per cent in 2017. The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) © 2019

Singapore Perspectives 2019 «Singapore. World» - Panel III: Singapore and the Region

According to the World Bank, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a historic trans-continental initiative that aims to connect China to some 65 other countries that account for over 30 per cent of global GDP, 62 per cent of population, and 75 per cent of known energy reserves. At the same time, the US economy has experienced healthy growth in recent years. It remains a competitive, adaptive and innovative economy that is attractive to international talent and investment. If political and economic competition intensifies in the coming years, what are the implications for the international financial and trading system? An open trading system has benefitted trading nations like Singapore that are plugged into the global supply chains that bring capital and technological know-how. Singapore is a shipping, air, and financial and business hub for more than 37,000 companies from across the world, including 7,000 multinational companies. It is a key financing services centre for BRI projects and supports the internationalisation of the Renminbi, being one of two Asian countries that are part of the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor programme (the other being the Republic of Korea). How can Singapore and Southeast Asian countries work together to face the headwinds and capitalise on new opportunities? What is the future of Singapore’s hub strategy? How should it adjust its international economic strategy and national socioeconomic policies? Finally, how can Singapore encourage an optimistic and cosmopolitan mindset among Singaporeans towards the region and the rest of the world, to nurture its own workforce, welcome international talent, and encourage Singaporeans to venture into the region and beyond for learning and business opportunities? Singapore and the Region Japan, Korea, India, Australia, countries in Southeast Asia, and ASEAN as a whole are likely to face increasing pressures from US-China rivalry. The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) © 2019

Dialogue with Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, Minister for Foreign Affairs

The US has strong alliances with many of these countries and has demonstrated its interest in the South China Sea dispute but its other moves like withdrawing from the TPP have raised concerns about prospects for long-term US influence in the region. China has sought to deepen its political and economic ties with countries in the region, proposing historic and far-reaching initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. US-China competition for dominance and influence is likely to grow in the coming years. Southeast Asian states are witnessing significant political flux domestically, particularly as their economies mature and undergo re-structuring; all are eager for foreign investment and trade with external partners. While there are shades of differences in their interests and relations with the major powers, ASEAN member states share the common goal of security and prosperity, and have generally managed to forge a common position, in the past five decades. However, their continued ability to do so as a united and key player in regional affairs has been brought into question in recent years. Governments and non-government organisations and groups will also need to assess current efforts to promote a sense of community and shared interests among the citizens of ASEAN, and to make a real push towards this goal. What are the potential flashpoints that will have serious security and economic implications for Southeast Asia? What would be the likely alignment of interests and outcomes? How can Singapore and its ASEAN brethren forge unity to protect their continued security, prosperity, and freedom and independence of action? The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) © 2019